Agraria_Journal_WINTER_2022

The report also models a more worrisome scenario. Called “Runaway Sprawl,” this projection estimates that the United States will convert over 24 million acres of farmland in the next two decades. Fueled by low-density residential development — where farms are carved up into 5-, 10-, and 15-acre nonagricultural tracts — this scenario could wreak havoc on America’s farms, threatening local food supplies and endangering the important cultural, ecological, and economic benefits that well-tended farmland can provide. It’s the sort of future that’s foreshadowed by the real estate listings mentioned earlier. Yet the report isn’t all doom and gloom. It also outlines an alternative way forward, suggesting detailed steps we can take to cultivate a better future for farmland, farmers, and, by extension, everyone. The “Better Built Cities” projection shows what could happen if we make wiser land use decisions. It shows the promise of protecting land from development, holistically valuing farms and farmers, and building more resilient communities. It highlights the potential of growing smarter and more forcefully pursuing equity and justice, the dearth of which has devastated both people and places. Compared to “Runaway Sprawl,” this more thoughtful scenario can slash farmland loss by 55 percent. BROOKS LAMB Heavy equipment preparing former farmland to grow yet another new subdivision in rural Tennessee. AGRARIA JOURNAL 2022 9